A Theory of the World as run by large adult children

tomclancy.info

182 points by tclancy 3 hours ago


randallsquared - an hour ago

The "silver dollar" change isn't -- it's the dime. The design was in the works before the current administration [1], and is only intended to be for the 250th anniversary [2].

The Dept of Defense was only created in the late 1940s. Before that the US had the Dept of War, the Dept of the Navy, and other organizations. The point of calling it "defense" was not because "everyone has the right to defense", but because the US was promoting the United Nations and waging a Cold War, and wanted to pretend that it would never do anything proactive or aggressive. That is, it was propaganda, as the current preferred name "Dept of War" is now for a different posture with regard to America's adversaries.

If you're going to call people stupid or immature for making certain decisions, maybe take a couple minutes to find out who made the decisions, and/or what the history of those and similar changes has been.

[1] https://www.ccac.gov/system/files/media/calendar/images/Semi...

[2] https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-programs/semiquincentennia...

alecco - 2 hours ago

The effects of Idiocracy are much worse than we appreciate. I believe it's hidden in part by technology (as a cognitive crutch) and part by top skilled immigration (people previously suppressed in their undeveloped countries). And education is much, much worse almost everywhere by leaning more to memorization and catering to the lowest common denominator. Student A is bad at math and good at language, student B is the opposite, both get the worst education for both subjects.

I think we haven't felt yet the true consequences of this. Worldwide.

donatj - 2 hours ago

I have genuinely put a lot of thought into this lately. I have the sensation like older media was more expressive and thoughtful, there's at least more... interesting flavors there generally...

I am happy to ponder and willingly accept this is probably just my perception.

I have a couple of theories. The creators of the media are becoming more and more my age. Do they have nothing interesting to say to me as our experience is shared? Is this something experienced by previous generations as their generation took over media, or is our zeitgeist as "digital natives" so newly shared that this is a new experience?

I know people who would blame "ensh*tification" and move on, but I really think that there is more to what is happening.

What I do know is it's exceedingly rare for me to watch a movie or show made after about 2015 and to find myself thinking about it days later. There are of course exceptions.

Configure0251 - 2 hours ago

No need to do a drive by on Predator Badlands like that, it's a perfectly enjoyable film in its own right. I agree with the author though, there's nothing nearly as emotionally deep or socio-politically engaging as One Battle After Another, and so it would make for poor choice as a double feature to run second in the pairing.

glitchc - 2 hours ago

In my experience, everyone turns twelve when they disagree or are shown to be wrong. Very few have the temerity to accept their faults. Let's not throw stones lest they hit our own glass houses.

skyberrys - 2 hours ago

Is this an attack on Captain Underpants of the silly novels? Or are we arguing that the global leaders are immature and don't think through their decisions? I admit I've only just started reading Captain Underpants but it doesn't seem like George and Harold are willing to do pranks to the extent of harming anyone. I do recognize childness in leadership occasionally. When I directly have to interface with it I adapt my response as though it actually is a child. That tends to help moderate the results somewhat. Children for the most part have good intentions and pure hearts, when things go wrong it's through inexperience not malice.

Does Tom Clancy think the novels are literary trash? The books are made for children, it's about following your dreams and using your imagination in the face of grown up resistance.

sorokod - an hour ago

The US Department of War does not take full advantage of its name. Declaring a war has real legal and political consequences which presumably are not appealing to the current US administration.

https://www.war.gov/Spotlights/Operation-Epic-Fury/

hyperhello - 2 hours ago

It’s an evolved skin for blending with the other humans. Look at what they always actually do.

ericmcer - 2 hours ago

The author framed this as if "One Battle After Another" was some adult work and they couldn't watch "Predator" afterwards because it was so childish.

I had the opposite reaction and could barely make it through 15m of One Battle. The movie opens with women in skin tight dresses and mini skirts with automatic weapons robbing banks and breaking into migrant detention centers while yelling "this is what real power looks like". That feels like childish nonsense to me but then it is wrapped in this "radical chic" that is supposed to force me to take it seriously. Rather than movies like Predator which are intentionally dumb and fun the author should look at how vague political messages and sex are used to take extremely shallow work and make it "adult".

some_random - 2 hours ago

I was totally with it until they started talking about the real world again. The Department of War was called that up until 1947 when it was renamed to the euphemistic Department of Defense (or more specifically merged with the Department of the Navy which was previously separate). It has nothing to do with the right to self defense, the undermining of which would make a great paragraph here comparing modern self defense law the world over with schoolhouse rules.

Fricken - 2 hours ago

Observing toddlers fight over toys has yielded some of my most valuable insights into the nature of statecraft.

api - 2 hours ago

One thing you learn growing up is that there, in a sense, are no such thing as grownups.

Nobody knows what they are doing in the sense we think they do when we are kids.

est - 2 hours ago

idk if this was the exact quote but:

H.R. McMaster: Trump’s knowledge was like a series of islands. He might know a lot about one specific thing, but there were no bridges between the islands, no way to connect one thought to another

SideburnsOfDoom - 2 hours ago

See also: the "Everyone is Twelve now" theory of politics.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91429448/everyone-is-12-twitter-...

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/everyone-is-12-now-theory-of-...

blitzar - 2 hours ago

Those who can do.

Those that can't become politicians.

DoneWithAllThat - an hour ago

At the risk of sounding very old:in partial response to the nonsense starting around the 2015/2016 era I decided it was a good time to start mining the cultural vault and catch up on classic movies and books (especially) that I’d always been meaning to get around to, and kind of immersed myself in it more and more over time. Lots of older science fiction, fantasy, and just random movies I’d heard of but never got around to experiencing.

Subsequently, trying to return to consuming modern media has been quite the shock to the system. In many ways, but maybe the most startling is the storytelling. Books and movies lauded for being modern classics are so brain-numbing stupid (sorry but there’s no other accurate way to describe them) abound. Just absolute paint by numbers stories, messaging so on the nose you almost need a new phrase to describe it because the standard one didn’t do it justice, small-minded and petty characters being portrayed as heroic or brilliant - it’s incredible. I know there’s already comparisons to Idiocracy in this thread, and yes I’m well aware of the term selection bias so there’s no need to point it out - of course classics are classic for a reason. But I’m talking the most celebrated stories of our modern age here, the supposed next generation of classics, and all I can think is… really? Really? Have you all gone insane?

afavour - 2 hours ago

Reminds me of this classic:

working on a new unified theory of american reality i'm calling "everyone is twelve now"

“I’m strong and I want to have like fifty kids and a farm” of course you do. You’re twelve. “I don’t want to eat vegetables I think steak and French fries is the only meal” hell yeah homie you’re twelve. “Maybe if there’s crime we should just send the army” bless your heart my twelve year old buddy

https://bsky.app/profile/veryimportant.lawyer/post/3lybxlwzj...

fzeroracer - 2 hours ago

I think a lot of us have worked with That Guy at one point or another. The person that never internalized what being 'wrong' means. I don't mean the curmudgeons that might be really prickly about certain things, but the kind of person that is not only habitually wrong but incapable of recognizing it.

In a sense I think this is a different thing from someone that is antisocial or manipulative, because even they can admit being wrong or incorrect in certain circumstances. It's closest to narcissist behavior but it exhibits in such a specific way that makes me think it's a different type.

You could probably link it to a lot of different things. Extreme machismo social media brainrot, a society that rewards never admitting you're wrong, extreme wealth.

bethekidyouwant - an hour ago

a meta question about this. How is a short sort of musing current political landscape blog post the top on hacker news?

arjie - 42 minutes ago

tl;dr we’ve got the politicians that are most aligned with the majority of voters

I have a suspicion that it’s no different than any other highly efficient system. You’ll notice that every time there’s a natural crisis you’ll hear how facility X is the only place in the world where Y is done and now everything Y is going to go up in price[0].

There’s lots of reasons everyone downstream of X doesn’t have backup plans but one that certainly applies to the immediate consumers of Y is that over time market forces shave off any insurance against Y prices.

This phenomenon is well-understood and so most countries intentionally develop backup facilities to X in what they believe are crucial spaces. It’s why the US pays for both ULA and SpaceX (instead of just whichever works better) and pays more for locally grown food and so on.

But someone has to be watching and convince the rest of us that this kind of thing is worth doing and they need to keep doing it for a long time.

What I think happened is The Sort[1] happened. We got better at giving people with the requisite skills their rewards. Previously, you might end up with a smart steely-eyed guy as Flight EECOM at NASA but today that guy has a shot at 100x the wealth on Wall Street or in tech. If you look at the debate between George H W Bush and Ronald Reagan[2] you’ll see a sort of thing that isn’t so common today: they are asked whether the US should be paying for the education of children of people crossing the border with Mexico and where today the highly-optimized politician will respond that he will do what you, the constituent, is asking here[3] and stop paying for these people one way or another - both candidates actually contest that idea and offer a view that’s not populist.

You’ll see this today with the rise of direct to constituent social media. A big part of politicians’ approach today is about What Polls Well. Sen. Warren is the biggest example of this I think. Once the proponent of intelligent policy, she is now most commonly known for highly populist policy - to the extent that she is now often described as a slopulist.

So what I think is the difference is that earlier most politicians were more influenced by smarter people with low time preference and as the constituents became more powerful as a mass, politicians started being influenced primarily by the median person until we eventually have someone perfectly reflective of the electorate. The electorate, for the most part, would like all taxes set as close to zero and all spending set as close to 100% on their own pet interest; and second-order effects are rarely considered.

Therefore, in the common way of all people to declare monocausal roots of events, I declare that refinement culture has caused:

- highly efficient adaptation of politician to populace

- with low tail-risk mitigation

And consequently we’ve got a person who can’t do effective foreign policy running foreign policy because they are very good at politics.

A good self-test I think is “if chair of the Federal Reserve were an elected position would your party of choice have elected a multi millionaire investment banker like Jerome Powell to it?”. I think the answer to this is “no” for either party, yet he has performed his function admirably well, in my opinion.

0: often this is small and facilities X’ take on the same work at slightly raised costs Y’ but sometimes, like in the Thai flooding with HDDs, costs rise greatly

1: A term I first heard from patio11, but it’s related to the idea of refinement culture

2: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YsmgPp_nlok

3: because this is a Republican debate; if it were Democratic Party he would answer that he would do what you, the constituent wants, and assign a new fund to these people who he will declare (in agreement with you) are humans, not illegals and so on. The fact isn’t of significance here. It is whether they can talk the trade-offs of policy with their constituents. The modern leader is “I’m a leader. I need to follow the people”.

lyu07282 - 14 minutes ago

That's mistakenly conflating two concepts: the media propaganda in a more general sense of the word (like the pentagon reviewing movie scripts for war propaganda) and the underlying material and ideological reasons for US foreign policy (see natural resources, petrodollar, etc.). It would be a severe mistake to think the current conflict is somehow detached from the "grand chessboard" type of neoconservative thought dominating foreign policy for decades. In other words you shouldn't disagree with the war on Iran because Trump is an idiot, you should disagree because its an horrific atrocious war even if it were run by competent people instead.

Just as a very basic example: 4 presidents in a row have bombed Yemen: Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden. This is consensus on very fundamental ideas on US foreign policy. But way more importantly than whether or not you agree with bombing Yemen, you should start to recognize that the real reasons for bombing Yemen or any other conflict are completely absent from public discourse and media.

Also once you broaden your horizon on film a bit it becomes very hard to watch modern mainstream western movies at all. Like watch The Battle of Algiers or any Costa-Gavras movie and you realize most western cinema is at best just infantilizing and at worst outright propaganda.

Like if you watched One Battle After Another and thought it was profound, did you not notice the absence of any real ideological exploration beyond "racism is bad"? What did the caricatured resistance really believe in? What can such a movie really say about "radical" politics on immigration if the liberals who made it have to account for liberals approval and funding of ICE? Like it said nothing at all, that's the issue with everything. We are so politically atrophied that we think its the most political movie ever, but its really apolitical if you think about it a bit more.

jmyeet - an hour ago

I'm reminded of the quote "all models are wrong but some models are useful". I tend to think of generational analysis as overly reductive but, looking at the world, it's hard not to look at the world and blame everything on the baby boomers.

Consider the birth year of the last 5 presidents: Trump (1946), Biden (1942), Obama (1961), W Bush (1946), Clinton (1946). Isn't it a fairly wild coincidence that 3 of the last 5 were born in 1946 (and one more in 1942)? That's the first year of the baby boomer generation.

The term "woke" has been completely distorted but the original meaning is simply to recognize societal (ie systemic) injustice and to recognize that there is such a thing as intergenerational trauma (slavery, specifically). You could also say that the Holocaust caused generational trauma.

But the parents of the baby boomers went through a lot too. First there was the Great Depression and what followed (eg the Dust Bowl for many). It was a decade of social insability and a lack of security. Then came WW2 and then they were the first generation to live under the threat of nuclear annihilation. That's what the baby boomers were born into. So you had baby boomers being raised by people with unresolved trauma (eg "housewife syndrome" [1]). This generation grew up to vote for Ronald Reagan and almost everything bad in today's society can be traced back to Reagan somehow.

This is of course a generalization but baby boomers are the most emotionally immature, traumatized, entitled generation who are terrified to die, easily manipulated and like the pharoahs of old seemingly want to take everythign with them when they die. They were born into one of the greatest eras of wealth creation and did nothing but hoard and squander that opportunity while dismantling the systems that made it possible.

I envy the next generation because they will eventually get to live in a world where all the baby boomers are dead. The problem is that everything may be so screwed by then it might not matter.

[1]: https://ticktalkto.com/blog/the-housewife-syndrome

aaron695 - 2 hours ago

[dead]

nephihaha - 2 hours ago

[flagged]

rayiner - 2 hours ago

What’s childish is thinking that calling the Department of War by a euphemism changes what it is and always has been. The Department of “Defense” killed a bunch of people Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and countless minor actions. These bubbles of civilization we enjoy are built on adults killing a bunch of people, as necessary, to establish the order that allows more childish people to build social media websites.