How Olinia Turns Mexico's EV Ambition into Reality
spectrum.ieee.org34 points by rbanffy 4 hours ago
34 points by rbanffy 4 hours ago
How much is this car merely a rabble of Chinese parts made to look like an indigenous Mexican car? I see this as a Chinese ploy to work around the American import tariffs by praying on Mexican national pride for a so-called "national car industry."
If this ploy works you'll see larger versions of this car hitting the roads which look suspiciously like Chinese BYD and SAIC EVs. All these will of course be exported North of the Border, courtesy of NAFTA.
I hope the government stops this attempt dead in its tracks before it starts to hurt our car industry.
Detroit doesn't change its ways until it's been hit in the balls with a baseball bat once or twice. The baseball bat is smaller, cheaper, more efficient cars in the 70s and smaller, cheaper EVs today.
> How much is this car merely a rabble of Chinese parts made to look like an indigenous Mexican car? I see this as a Chinese ploy to work around the American import tariffs by praying on Mexican national pride for a so-called "national car industry."
Isn't a lot of the Mexican car industry foreign brands building their cars in Mexico with parts from wherever they come from? Lots of parts would be sourced in Mexico, but certainly not everything.
If you can get a high volume car assembled in your country, that's a win. Some, but not all of the parts production will move towards where assembly happens, because it simplifies logistics. That's a win too.
Would it be a bigger win for everything to be designed and made in your country? Yeah, probably, but it's not likely to happen, so take what you can get?
The American car industry has had over 50 years since the oil embargo to get its act together. How much more time do you want?
America has no leverage at this time ban Mexico/China if you want only Americans will be hurt in the crossfire.
Canada and Mexico are both allowing Chinese EVs in. US automaker export TAM will only decrease over time, and eventually, they will be boutique automakers serving only the US market. BYD intends to be the world's largest automaker in five years, and China currently has the capacity to produce ~25M EVs per year (~25% of global annual light vehicle sales, as of this comment). The US built ~1M EVs last year, for comparison.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/10/china-byd-c...
> I hope the government stops this attempt dead in its tracks before it starts to hurt our car industry.
There is literally nothing the US gov can do to stop this. On the contrary, their actions have accelerated this. Masterful gambit.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/seekin...
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/electric-vehicl...
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-15/china-... | https://archive.today/CXhGr
The US killed its own auto industry by shielding it from Chinese competition and rolling back EV incentive policy, to protect its profits of large combustion SUVs and trucks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/magazine/electric-cars-am... | https://archive.today/sENe1
> “We’ve reached a genuinely existential moment,” Ezell told me. In a best-case scenario, Detroit manages to meet it by crafting a viable, long-term E.V. strategy while also servicing the still dependably lucrative existing market for ICE trucks. In the worst, it retreats onto what the economist Susan Helper calls a “shrinking island of ICE,” churning out outlandishly large trucks and not much else. At which point, the obsolescence of the mighty U.S. automobile industry — a sector once inextricably associated with American know-how and economic might — would be all but guaranteed. As Ford’s chief executive, Jim Farley, recently acknowledged in a statement that could apply to any member of the Big Three, “If we don’t put our chips on the right number and the right color, Ford could maybe not exist.”
Canada is only allowing a very limited number of Chinese EVs to be sold without 100% tariff markup. Mostly to put up a token resistance to Trump's advances on their sovereignty.
The U.S. has already stated that none of these EVs can be exported to the continental U.S. NAFTA-be-damned. They may not even cross the border if some Congressmen have their way.
So it seems logical that the next Chinese ploy is to become a major shareholder in a so-called Mexican car manufacturer which is merely a front to export Chinese EVs to the U.S.
I predict we'll see large numbers of VinFast EVs (from Vietnam) being exported to the U.S. in the coming years. Vietnamese companies are mostly covertly owned and controlled by Chinese counterparts.
This is much like the Tata Nano, the one-lakh car.[1] Although very cheap, it did not sell.
The Olina isn't targeting the same market as the Nano.
The Nano tried to be a household car but failed because a 6 person household (2 parents, 2 grandparents, 2 kids) would also need trunk space.
On the other hand, the Olina is trying to replace mototaxis and three-wheelers.
This is going to go absolutely nowhere. There's really no market for these and the govt. would rather focus on something flashy like a new car instead of infrastructure or anything that could threaten Pemex (god forbid...)
Famously, she's focused a lot of her infrastructure work on expansion of rail. Including the 5.6 trillion peso Plan México and 3,000 new km of passenger train lines. She's also remodeling the Mexico City airport, modernizing and repairing 4,000 km of roads, and pushed the National Hospital Infrastructure Plan that will fund massive expansions of three major hospital systems. Also half of the infrastructure budget is allocated to energy infrastructure. Specifically to fund her massive clean energy transition. 70% of new energy is to come from renewables.
What other infrastructure do you have in mind?
Once more, the "remodeling" of the Mexico City airport is a historic failure by the previous and current administration. A new airport was being built, funded solely by private money and the previous administration made a non-binding public poll on whether to cancel it because of baseless corruption accusations. That was 8 years ago, and as it turns out, Mexico City desperately needed a new airport anyways. So the Army took a military base and expanded it to build a toy airport far away, which no one uses, so they had to pour money into the old, aging airport. Renewables is also a smoke screen, last administration spent 0 on the energy infra and now that's why we face blackouts every other day.
Something that fits to a poor struggling country, not some upper crust infra renewal.
Poor people need rail, busses, cars and the cheapest possible power. If the government does not provide the cartels are more then ready to do its job to placate the citizens.
Did you even read my comment? Rail, roads, and hospitals are not "upper crust" infrastructure
Thank you for putting the burden of proof on me instead of wearing that coat yourself- like the optics guy you are.
Well: Energy is 54 % of the money. Which is mostly for the industry up north. Renewables are decorative in the percentage.
Rail: 15.63 % - again mostly for the norther industrial zone- and some link ups with the southern neighbours (under the guise of helping the backwards regions down there).
Roads: 13.94 % same though alot of it is also for tourism. But also logistics.
Ports: 7% Sofar its mostly a trade and industry support program- bluntly directed at becoming the usas new industrial heartland.
The problematic part is that most of this infrastructure is private loan based investment in partnership with the mexican goverment. US-companies will own significant parts of the infrastructure down there and thus have a handle on the government.
This is mostly a "re-industrialize" the us plan without having the problems with industr you have in the us.
The article talks a lot about how China makes most of the electric cars and Mexico wants to "capture a piece of the action", but the Olinia has substantial amounts of its engineering and parts from China [1]. And instead of learning from a nice actual roadgoing car, they based it on a golf cart-like mini vehicle from a little-known Chinese motorcycle manufacturer.
[1] https://elceo.com/investigaciones-especiales/olinia-el-vincu...
Based on Olina's marketing [0], they are primarily targeting to replace auto rickshaws/three-wheelers.
It isn't meant to be a direct competitor of a Nissan Versa, Chevrolet Aveo, Nissan Frontier, or a Kia K3.
A better approach would have been adopting Malaysia's strategy of working on building a domestic battery platform [1], as the actual value add of an EV platform comes from the battery itself.
Also, the Olina Uno is very feature light (no AC, no air bags, little to no trunk space) despite costing around $8600 [2] despite Chinese, Indian [3], and Vietnamese [4] EV cars providing those features out of the box at the $7,000-9,000 pricepoint.
[0] - https://www.olinia.auto/
[1] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/automobiles/electric-vehicl...
[2] - https://insideevs.com/news/798256/mexico-olinia-uno-ev-cheap...
[3] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/automobiles/electric-vehicl...
[4] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/automobiles/electric-vehicl...
Mexico most cabs there just have windows rolled down or even no windows at all aside from the windshield.
In Mazatlan for example the most common taxi is called a pulmonia and only has a windshield and top cover but is gaz powered. This seems like a slightly longer version of the 4 seater pulomnia. I could totally see this being a great upgrade for a taxi driver there.
There's no way the average taxi driver can spend $8500 usd which is probably between 1 - 2x what they earn in a year in Mazatlan on a new electric vehicle which lacks infrastructure there. The electric vehicle "taxi" drivers in Mexico tend to be the upscale uber drivers. If you chat with taxi drivers in Mexico (I did for a bit while brainstorming startup ideas) they're squeezed between many rocks-and-a-hard-place and I don't think a new electric vehicle that underperforms Chinese ones in most ways will capture any of that market.
Depending on monthly financing, an $8500 electric rickshaw might work. I guess the big question is how much is monthly financing for a used Nissan Versa?
If I can purchase a used Nissan Versa for around $9000 and an Olina Uno for around $8500 and loan terms are roughly comparable, the used Nissan Versa would probably be the smarter purchase.
If financing for the Olina Uno cannot compete with financing for a used sedan, then I would assume that mototaxi owners would probably upgrade to a used sedan instead.
Very very few taxi drivers in Mexico are financing a $9000 sedan. They're mostly driving some taxi service's car and paying the service for the car or they're paying cash for a used and much cheaper car. $9000 is a lot of money for a taxi driver in Mexico.
I can see how it could replace a pulmonia but I don't see taxis replacing a nissan tsuru and versa with this to drive people to or from an airport or bus station.
> Mexico most cabs there just have windows rolled down or even no windows at all aside from the windshield.
That is mostly untrue. I have only seen those in Mazatlan and other turisti destinations.
I've seen Bajaj autos/mototaxis as well as the Qute in non-touristy parts of Yucatan and Chiapas that a friend took me to, but definitely not in CDMX (but tbf I also didn't visit the less well off areas of CDMX).
I think I noticed used cars the most, and honestly I don't think the economics of a three-wheeler makes sense in Mexico in 2026 compared to a used Nissan sedan.
Agreed!
I think Olina can successfully replace pulmonias, three-wheelers, and moto-taxis, but forcing a narrative that they can replace cars will only set the project up for failure.
It's called the Olina *1*. Meaning its a first step. Focusing on a smaller market to start off makes total sense as you scale your manufacturing to prepare for larger markets
This is all populist BS that will lead nowhere. The current government is the most incompetent and corrupt ever. And we had a really low bar already.
I think they're doing alright. Populism seems to be working for her approval ratings since she's one of Latin America's most popular leaders:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/07/16/mexicans-...
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/approval-tracker-mexicos-pre...
If lifting 8.3 million Mexican people out of poverty is "populism" then maybe we need more of that.
And I don't think the corruption claim is warranted. Her "Abrazos, no balazos" ("hugs, not guns") approach to dealing with gangs is taken as evidence of her being in cahoots with them but the data shows that it's clearly working. Homicides have dropped by almost half from a year ago! And other crimes have followed the same trajectory.
https://www.gob.mx/sspc/prensa/estrategia-nacional-de-seguri...
The current government of Mexico sells itself as a left leaning party. But it has been destroying or capturing every institution we had built to support our democracy, the separation of powers and the rule of law. From the judicial branch, the electoral institute, the transparency institute and many more.
As a left leaning guy, none of these actions are inherently not-left-leaning which seems to be your assertion. Left and right and middle can all capture institutions if left unchecked which is the case in Mexico.
That was not my intention, but thanks for clarifying it.
Now days we have to ask if political movements are committed to democracy even before we ask if the lean left or right.
I mean she passed a plan for universal basic healthcare. I'd say that's clearly left-leaning (even if a bit milquetoast). Her Abrazos, no balazos approach to crime and anti-war stances are also pretty left-leaning. I think she's clearly a left-wing figure but is moderated by trying to toe the line between US foreign policy and leftwing populism
Those are left-leaning only if you do not the details. Please consider that this government has a fantastic propaganda machine.
For example, We already had a Universal Basic Healthcare called Seguro Popular. Which was destroyed in 2018 by this regime on a tantrum which left millions without coverage. We went from 9% uncovered to 26% uncovered. They are still trying to figure out how to fix that.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12639676/
The "Abrazos, no balazos" approach turned out to be the party colluding with organized crime to win elections.
I will preface my comment by saying I'm in no way trying to attack you personally or discredit your opinion based on your foreigner status, but she is not left-leaning. The plan for universal basic healthcare is a rehash of a program that already existed and was cancelled by her antecesor (and mentor). Abrazos, no balazos is also a policy from her ancestor which has resulted (to no avail) in the highest numbers of killings and missing people. Paradoxically, the country has become more militarized, with the Army taking many more responsibilities such as managing borders, trains and airports. The Federal Police got abolished by a National Guard that has since integrated into the Army command structure, no longer a civil force. Previous administration was also against renewables and the trend is still there. It's all populism and propaganda. The judicial power was captured and dismantled along with all serious institutions, and yes, even right wing governments can do it, typically one associates left leaning governments towards separation of powers.