Is This Sustainable?
jamiehurst.co.uk56 points by ColinEberhardt 4 hours ago
56 points by ColinEberhardt 4 hours ago
> The result, in my case, is that I code more than I have in years. Three years ago I coded maybe once a fortnight, mostly throwaway PoCs to demonstrate concepts. Now I code most days of the week, in between other work.
This kind of senior engineering role really depends on the type/size of an org. I've had jobs like this on & off and generally don't stick around for long. There have always been high-impact hands-on-keyboard senior roles that involve coding most/every day..
> The other thing that gave way was thinking time. There's very little of it in my working day now. The productivity gains from AI got captured by output volume rather than output quality.
I actually see this externally from b2b vendors I am a client of. Companies that used to churn out X new products/month are now pushing 4X products but they all suck. The quantity over quality market is going to produce new opportunities for others.
There's also this part:
> Three years ago [...], the process was familiar: write a proposal, get feedback, iterate, build a small PoC to demonstrate value, get a team assigned to take it to MVP, ship something fully featured and integrated with the rest of the platform six to twelve months later.
This to me smells of large, slow, very political organisation where actual work gets done at glacial pace. The increase in speed is probably not due to LLMs, rather to the fact that this person now has an excuse to present working products while before, by their own admission, they were mostly dedicated to producing corporate slop.
> The quantity over quality market is going to produce new opportunities for others
once the linkedin anti-ai hype train starts in earnest that’ll be when there’ll be money to be made.
monkey see, monkey do.
there's no anti-ai hype train. It doesn't exist. There'll merely be more and more bots crowding into every space that the only people left will not care.
The rest will be out touching grass.
not yet. but given the growing backlash my bet is that at some point linkedin monkeys will eventually all begin posting about the importance of “human centric design” or whatever.
at that point there’ll be some money to be made for the supposedly “replaceable” software engineers they’ve been shitting on this whole time.
i’m hoping my bet pays off, cos i would like nothing more than to rinse these people for everything they’ve got. it’ll be payback time baby.
This piece is really good:
> The cost of building has collapsed, but the cost of aligning organisationally has not. If anything, it's gone up. When three different teams can each produce a working solution to the same problem in the time it used to take to write a proposal, the bottleneck moves from engineering to coordination.
We're still figuring out how to productively use coding agents as individuals, the next challenge is figuring out how to productively use them within teams. Coding agents reduce one bottleneck - producing working code - but that just moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.
(Note I said "working" code and not "good" code, that's a whole other thing.)
When a long article is topped by an AI-generated image, it makes me wonder if I should bother reading. Did a human write this?
When I get the sense that something might be generated I ctrl+f "honest" and "framing".
These are words that humans use, but that Claude loves to use in a particular way, the kind of way used in this article. It particularly likes the phrase "The honest version".
> But the trade is real, and I don't think the industry is being honest about it.
Add "X is real".
It appears to be a mix. I sense that a human wrote it, or at least parts of it, and AI was used for polish. But the LLM-isms are definitely obvious.
Yes of course.
Why? You are already on hn which filters content before you read it
Just a funny observation, apologies in advance:
I am rewatching Stargate SG-1 with my children right now and cannot read this comment except in the voice of Teal’c.
In the previous episode the team was in 1969 on a hippy bus.
My advice is to chill out a little…
I'm just gobsmacked at how self-absorbed this is.
I was listening to some obscure band you wouldn't know with a few chicks I met roller blading last week, and I can't help but read your comment while imagining the first few notes of the second song playing. After that we watched The Simpsons and my advice is to not eat a cow, man.
No, it isn't sustainable. There is a paper called "The AI Layoff Trap"[1], it says that it is a prisoner's dilemma and this is why this dude feels like he's in an arms race.
On the other front, people are saying that NVidia can't deliver stable drivers for like 15 months and they don't want to take software updates at all, they are more happy with last year's drivers.
I think this is a black swan event in the industry. A lot of people already suffered and more people will suffer still. Industry is going to change for sure, but probably not in a way that you would expect. Black swan simply doesn't work that way, it doesn't change industry in a good way, hence black swan.
[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/402969772_The_AI_La...
black swan is not a reference to the badness of blackness but the unlikelihood of something contradicting volumes of previous data.
Thus it can change industry in a good way or a bad way, because the black swan is unprecedented and unpredicted, its consequences and their nature is unsettled.
Traditionally in economics black swan is an unpredictable negative event.
The only thing that is unsettled here still is how many more people will lose their jobs and how much cumulative loss prisoner's dilemma will generate.
I saw random people on Internet suggesting to piggyback this disaster and dip into the crazy money that it is "generating", but in a zero-sum game somebody has to lose.
The description I remember is the idea of holding the belief “all swans are white” until one encounters a black swan, and having to update their beliefs accordingly. What does this mean about swans?
But maybe that’s not the intended meaning either? It’s an interesting expression.
Yes. And ultimately the colour of swans in Western Australia impacts… almost nothing at all.
It makes me wonder if large engineering organizations are going to splinter. The coordination costs are getting, proportionally, much larger than they used to.
When I left my corporate engineering job wayyyyy back in March, there were engineers and engineering leaders going off and getting a lot done, individually or in small teams. But project management and QA couldn't keep up with it. Managers resorted to turning their tokens loose on Jira just to try to make sense of it all (which, ironically made them the first to hit their token goals on the dashboard every week, and brought Jira to it's knees).
And, even worse, the junior engineers had no idea what was going on or how to get involved in anything.
The result was an increasingly chaotic mess.
My take on this, which is almost entirely pulled out of my rear end because I last worked in a large company before the rise of agents, is that we’ll see a move from vertical teams of specialists who get pulled into projects to build a mobile app or handle infrastructure. Instead there’ll be a much stronger focus on teams of generalists, or combined teams of specialists from different fields, working on a feature or product end to end.
Coordination has in my experience always been the big bottleneck in getting anything done, it’s just not hurt so much because everyone expected a feature that could have been done in a fortnight to take months.
> Instead there’ll be a much stronger focus on teams of generalists, or combined teams of specialists from different fields, working on a feature or product end to end.
> Coordination has in my experience always been the big bottleneck in getting anything done
I work at a large enterprise you've heard of. They're currently re-organizing the product area to remove currently-static two pizza teams into an amorphous blob of feature-oriented teams. Once the feature is complete, the team is dissolved and the engineers re-enter the pool, tasked with new features.
All that to say, I think you're right on the money with your assessment.
Where does the feature go for long term ownership? That throws you build it you own it out the window. We are going to get more time for documentation and handover right, right? Engineers are famous for generating good documentation.
Claude with Jira is the first time I've applied AI and felt like it was truly saving me time. The UI and search tools are so clunky, it feels much better to say "Find jira tickets like xyz" and read through their titles/summaries in the command prompt.
I am not sure if that's a good thing for Claude, or an indictment of Jira.
I've always been frustrated by charlatans who do a great job advancing their own goals at the cost of those foolish enough to actually care about doing a good job. AI is a very empowering tool for these kinds as it is super effective at creating facades of productivity and thoughtfulness.
I think AI has a lot of value when used with thoughtful care. I think a lot of the conversations around it are really about frustrations with charlatans.
I read it but I don't really understand the writing.
Same here - there's no real insight, no key takeaways, nothing useful. It's just a bunch of anecdotes and drivel hidden in self-promotion.
Sometimes these AI posts and same-y takeaway points are like murmurations of birds flocking.
My favorite, guy comes back from 6 month parental leave to force upon people in the trenches his epiphany on "GenAI".
You could have just told us you're a slop slinger and save everyone some time.
Do not bother reading this.
The author could have written a rather incisive 800 words on this if he'd really tried.
But I will not read 2500 words of redundant, repetitive slop. It's really bad writing.
There is no pacing or conclusion to speak of. It's sort of just a loose list alternating between upsides and downsides, punctuated by the usual bullshit list-y ad-copy summations:
The build cost collapsed, the alignment cost rose, the thinking time disappeared, and the productivity gains got captured by output volume rather than output quality.Thinking that memorizing insane code rules is being skilled in making software is like thinking that memorizing all the generals' birth days is being skilled in warfare.
Before AI, trying to program even a simple thing was an exercise in frustration from rules that had only been put in place by programmers to protect their own jobs and make it as difficult as possible for a normal person to develop. Oh! You mixed tabs and spaces, now your code will not compile and you're stuck another day. Oh! You forgot a semicolon, now the code won't run, even though the software points out your missed semicolon and thus knows how to fix it.
AI takes care of all that bagage and now I and others can make fully functional software that solves real world problem for real people.
> memorizing insane code rules is being skilled in making software
That’s on the level of complaining about having to learn music theory to play the piano, or to learm grammar to write a report. Or having to learn the road rules to drive a car on the street.
I'm afraid you never understood the job if you think it's just "memorizing insane code rules".
I've never had a problem mixing tabs or spaces in any language that supported this, which is basically most languages.
I've spent the last three weeks working out a spec and didn't even start the development process yet.
The idea that the syntax of the language would ever be a bottleneck sounds ridiculous to me.
The gate keeping allegations are also incomprehensible. The vast majority of developers are working on making their jobs easier. There wouldn't be an endless stream of new programming languages, libraries and frameworks, if there was a software guild that you needed approval from to work on software. Even if such a guild existed, it would get obsoleted by the competition.
There are cases of people maximizing their own job security by writing terrible and incomprehensible code, but most experienced developers have gotten bitten by their own cleverness and try to make their code as easy to understand and as accessible as possible.
Things like Java Server Faces and Java Enterprise Edition died out a long time ago. The XML craze is over. Roy Fielding style REST/HATEOAS is dead and everything is an HTTP API with OpenAPI docs nowadays. People understand by now that micro service architectures only make sense for organisational purposes but not for technical reasons. NoSQL also waned and everyone is basically putting their JSON into PostgreSQL if they need to store complex hierarchical data.
Why do you even care about irrelevant things like semicolons? Like, any reasonable editor gives you squiggly lines so you can't miss them, meanwhile in practice having a line delimiter helps disambiguate hairy expressions and produce more readable error messages. For me they are an imperceptible cost that I couldn't care less about.
If you talked about null pointers, which are basically a landmine in every line you've ever written, waiting for a chance to explode, maybe you'd have a point but even nullable pointers are an idea that is being relegated to the history books.
> The idea that the syntax of the language would ever be a bottleneck sounds ridiculous to me.
Great! Then you can pick any man of the street and show him some code, and he will understand the syntax intuitively and start coding? Dollar signs, semicolons, brackets and === and the difference between "" and ''. It's all self explanatory.
Can you pick any man of the street and show him some text in a foreign language and get him to translate it? Especially with a foreign script? Can you write in japanese? or Persian? You had to go to school to learn how to write, you were not born with that knowledge.
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> The engineers who've adopted these tools effectively get heard more often, get their proposals taken seriously more often, and shape direction more than those who haven't.
I want to point out if the organizational model or your team's engineers are resistant to change, it doesn't matter how good of an engineer you are, or how good at proposal writing you are. With or without AI.