How AI is affecting productivity and jobs in Europe

cepr.org

146 points by pseudolus 13 hours ago


gyulai - 6 hours ago

> The EU trails the US not only in the absolute number of AI-related patents but also in AI specialisation – the share of AI patents relative to total patents.

E.U. patent law takes a very different attitude towards software patents than the U.S. Even if that wasn't the case: “Specialisation” means that no innovation unrelated to AI gets mind share, investment, patent applications. And that's somehow a good thing? Not something you can just throw out there as a presupposition without explaining your reasoning.

m463 - 10 hours ago

I wonder if web searches used to be pretty productive, then declined as sponsored results and SEO degraded things.

Nowadays an ai assist with a web search usually eliminates the search altogether and gives you a clear answer right away.

for example, "how much does a ford f-150 cost" will give you something ballpark in a second, compared to annoying "research" to find the answer shrouded in corporate obfuscation.

irjustin - 9 hours ago

FWIW, these studies are too early. Large orgs have very sensitive data privacy considerations and they're only right now going through the evaluation cycles.

Case in point, this past week, I learned Deloitte only recently gave the approval in picking Gemini as their AI platform. Rollout hasn't even begun yet which you can imagine is going to take a while.

To say "AI is failing to deliver" because only 4% efficiency increase is a pre-mature conclusion.

8cvor6j844qw_d6 - 9 hours ago

Its depressing when people are hearing managers are openly asking all employees to pitch in ideals for AI in order to reduce employee headcount.

For those hearing this at work, better prepare an exit plan.

frigg - 3 hours ago

I have a hard time understanding what "increased productivity by 4%" actually means and how this metric is measured. One low-digit does not seem high when put into the context and promises, is it?

aregue - 4 hours ago

I cannot read the paper that this article is based on, but it seems that it refers to the use of big data analytics and AI in 2024, not LLM. It concludes that the use of AI leads to a 4% increase in productivity. Nowadays the debate over AI productivity centers around LLMs, not big data analytics. This article does not seem to contradict more recent findings that LLM do not (yet) provide any increased productivity at the company level.

FanaHOVA - 8 hours ago

You know it's a EU study because they bring up "AI patents" in the first 2 minutes of it, as if they mean anything

smartmic - 5 hours ago

What stands out for me is that the productivity gains for small and medium-sized enterprises are actually negative. But in Germany, for example, these companies are the backbone of the entire economy. That means it would be interesting to know how the average was calculated, what method was used, what weighting was applied, etc.

All in all, it's an interesting study, but it leaves out a lot, such as long-term effects, new dependencies, loss of skills, employee motivation, and much more.

yorwba - 5 hours ago

Of note, "AI adoption" here means using "technologies that intelligently automate tasks and provide insights that augment human decision making, like machine learning, robotic process automation, natural language processing (NLP), algorithms, neural networks" and not just LLMs.

rwmj - 3 hours ago

Is there a link to the actual paper anywhere? That seems like a rather large omission. Without the paper it's hard to tell what they are actually measuring.

phoebusaicartel - 4 hours ago

This is tongue in cheek but my point is the behavior of these companies, their relentless PR, and the looming liquidity crisis they are causing seems like a coordinated plan. Consumer confidence is certainly being crystalized by rumors of all kinds and businesses are made up of consumers. If the fact checkers are LLMs themselves how does one even begin to figure out the truth?

This is just a little wikipedia adlib I did to illustrate my point. (double posted)

"The Phoebus.AI cartel was an international cartel that controlled the manufacture and sale of computer components in much of Europe and North America between 2025 and 2039. The cartel took over market territories and lowered the useful supply and life of such computer components, which is commonly cited as an example of planned obsolescence of general computing technology in favor of 6G ubiquitous computing. The Phoebus.AI cartel's compact was intended to expire in 2055, but it was instead nullified in 2040 after World War III made coordination among the members impossible."

kittbuilds - 8 hours ago

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ath3nd - 6 hours ago

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kolabv - 10 hours ago

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nivcmo - 8 hours ago

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lifestyleguru - 8 hours ago

AI is affecting everything the same as Covid, as we've been in one single-topic hysteria since 2020. With one short break for attaching bottle caps to their bottles.

Not even Russian invasion or collapse of their automotive industry rattled them.

sajithdilshan - 3 hours ago

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